“The Russians have lost a lot of units near Bakhmut. Now they are trying to form a new army corps. But it won’t help them”

Heavy fighting continues in the Bakhmut sector. Ukrainian troops control certain facilities in the city itself and the private sector in the “Litak” area. The struggle for the dominant heights on the flanks — the north and south of the suburbs — continues, said Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar. Ukrainian defenders in Bakhmut inflicted significant losses on the Russian 72^nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In fact, one battalion of invaders has been destroyed. The Ukrainian troops are trying to advance on the enemy’s flanks, but the battle for the city is extremely heavy. At a press conference in Japan, US President Joseph Biden said that in the battle for Bakhmut Russia’s losses amounted to more than 100,000 troops. Due to what the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to fight and why the occupiers are losing their positions, military analyst Ivan Sichen told in an interview to Gazeta.ua.

— The Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said: “We continue to advance on the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut and are actually approaching the capture of the city into a tactical encirclement”. What does this give us? How much have we really managed to improve the situation?

— The situation is complicated. But it is completely different from what happened last summer in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. For Russians, Bakhmut is an idea-fix. It has a sacred meaning. Because they have been trying to capture the city for more than nine months. Their “world’s second army” has lost thousands of servicemen, but still has not taken Bakhmut. Instead, our troops are gradually making their way on the flanks. Of course, it is far from encircling Russian troops, because the advance is insignificant. But it does create a threat of encirclement.

Most importantly, Russia is throwing in almost all of its forces. It is still trying to attack near Marinka. But these are actions that lead nowhere. And we do not give the opportunity to attack in other areas. And we are preparing our reserves, which will be able to go on the counteroffensive. And to change the situation at the front.

The Russian offensive has run out. They may try to capture some other parts of the city, but this will not give them anything. The situation of last year, which taught them nothing, will repeat. First they attack with all their forces, but then lose their offensive potential. Tactically, they get nothing. They only lose a lot of soldiers and weapons. Then they are forced to take an operational pause, and at this time we seize the initiative.

— “We will be able to control all high-rise buildings occupied by the enemy and gradually destroy them. This deprives the enemy of control over the approaches to the city and gives us certain tactical advantages”, explains Syrskyi. How were we able to get these benefits?

— The Russians lost a lot of units near Bakhmut. Now they are trying to form a new army corps. But it will not be able to give them anything. Again they began to forcibly use prisoners. But there is something new — they used to give at least some minimal training. Now they just throw them to the front.

There is also the issue of weaponry — the Russians have lost a lot of it. They are trying to produce missiles, but they cannot actually produce armored vehicles. They lost capabilities because of sanctions. They already have to remove from long-term storages tanks, which were produces in the early 1950s. The Russians, of course, form some units, but they will not be able to properly train personnel, or equip it.

There is another problem for Russia. In the border areas with Ukraine there are actually hostilities. People leave them. Doctors run away. The more cannon fodder the Russians bring, the more their problems will worsen. For us, the nature of the war is absolutely different to what it was last summer.

—The Russians still control a large part of Bakhmut. The Defense Forces of Ukraine hold positions in the southwestern part. The advance of our forces is very cautious, because there is still not enough weapons, says Spokesperson of the Eastern Group of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Serhii Cherevatyi. Should more weapons help advance faster? Will we be able to get them soon?

— The weapons are supplied to us. But it’s not easy. Because we need to train people to operate and repair them. There are objective circumstances here: if you just throw weapons into battle, they will quickly end. It is necessary to form units where the weapons will be in service. So far, there are battles to exhaust Russian resources with our minimal losses.

Training of our units, meanwhile, is underway. British intelligence writes that up to 10 brigades should be trained. And when we attack, it will be visible. There are several possible directions — the Donbas or the south. It is important for us, for example, to regain control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. This way we can restore access to the Sea of Azov. The occupiers built a powerful defense line there — this is a difficult task, but it can be fulfilled.

— How long will we be able to hold Bakhmut? What do we need to go forward? Or vice versa — do we have to talk about retreat?

— We can hold at the pace as we do now for a long time. Because the Russians have been trying to break through the our defenses since mid-January 2023. But they can’t. In fact, the battle became positional. We cannot attack on a large scale yet, but the Russians can no longer attack. Because the advance is hundreds of meters, not more. And for war, it’s nothing.

Of course, if the situation escalates more, the leadership may decide to retreat to new frontiers, because there is nothing to hold on in Bakhmut. Our defense is already prepared to save our servicemen. But I hope that we will be able to get new weapons in the near future and keep the city and advance.

The experience of this war shows that all Russian weaponry, which “has no analogues”, is just a bluff. The last such case is with Kinzhals. The same can be said about their “newest” tanks, like the Armata. Russia’s military-industrial potential has completely degraded. We get Western modern technology. Therefore, we can deter the enemy. And then go ahead.

Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva

Source: Gazeta.ua

The article is available in Russian